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We have unmistakable signs that households are becoming more cautious about spending. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

We have unmistakable signs that households are becoming more cautious about spending.

Bernard Baumohl

[( TIME.com ) -- Great news! Unemployment is up. Wages are stagnant. Hiring by U.S. companies is down for the first time in more than four years. But there might be some help wanted on Wall Street soon, because Friday's unemployment report is the stuff rallies are made of. Just a half hour into the trading day, the Dow was up 175 and the NASDAQ almost 200 (with inflation-fearing bonds whooping it up right alongside them) as investors saw visions of the long season of economic overdrive, interest-rate hikes and neurotic markets drawing to a close.] This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed, ... This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

[( TIME.com ) -- Great news! Unemployment is up. Wages are stagnant. Hiring by U.S. companies is down for the first time in more than four years. But there might be some help wanted on Wall Street soon, because Friday's unemployment report is the stuff rallies are made of. Just a half hour into the trading day, the Dow was up 175 and the NASDAQ almost 200 (with inflation-fearing bonds whooping it up right alongside them) as investors saw visions of the long season of economic overdrive, interest-rate hikes and neurotic markets drawing to a close.] This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed, ... This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again.

Bernard Baumohl

News

The central bank seems more worried than before that resources feeding the U.S. economic expansion are getting scarce. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The central bank seems more worried than before that resources feeding the U.S. economic expansion are getting scarce.

Bernard Baumohl

On the other hand, Greenspan seems satisfied that his tightening has had a lasting effect. He's likely to stand pat for the rest of the year. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

On the other hand, Greenspan seems satisfied that his tightening has had a lasting effect. He's likely to stand pat for the rest of the year.

Bernard Baumohl

When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give.

Bernard Baumohl

Debt

While the DOJ maintains long-standing, black-and-white parameters to seek out monopolies, the FCC tends to undertake a far more subjective and changeable analysis. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

While the DOJ maintains long-standing, black-and-white parameters to seek out monopolies, the FCC tends to undertake a far more subjective and changeable analysis.

Bernard Baumohl

There are signs that indicate economic strength might strain the economy, which would cause inflation. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

There are signs that indicate economic strength might strain the economy, which would cause inflation.

Bernard Baumohl

The economy is generating plenty of jobs -- that's good news. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The economy is generating plenty of jobs -- that's good news.

Bernard Baumohl

People are going to be less inclined to drive to shopping centers. Instead, they're going to stay at home and if they carry on their usual holiday spending patterns then they will do it more likely online. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

People are going to be less inclined to drive to shopping centers. Instead, they're going to stay at home and if they carry on their usual holiday spending patterns then they will do it more likely online.

Bernard Baumohl

It's fairly safe to say that the trade deficit may have peaked now that oil prices are falling and the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

It's fairly safe to say that the trade deficit may have peaked now that oil prices are falling and the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.

Bernard Baumohl

In March and April, interest rates were going up very gradually, and tech investors figured Greenspan would taper off, because this was an election year. Now, the inflation picture is getting worse, and Greenspan is getting serious. And they're feeling the effects of higher interest rates. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

In March and April, interest rates were going up very gradually, and tech investors figured Greenspan would taper off, because this was an election year. Now, the inflation picture is getting worse, and Greenspan is getting serious. And they're feeling the effects of higher interest rates.

Bernard Baumohl

Inflation Interest Rates Investors

Our imports increase as long as the economy grows, - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

Our imports increase as long as the economy grows,

Bernard Baumohl

The stress on household finances in coming weeks will be the greatest since the last recession in 2001, - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The stress on household finances in coming weeks will be the greatest since the last recession in 2001,

Bernard Baumohl

Recession Stress

There is a real sense of foreboding about the economy now that Katrina has struck with full force. This storm will be the most devastating ever for the U.S. oil and refining industries. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

There is a real sense of foreboding about the economy now that Katrina has struck with full force. This storm will be the most devastating ever for the U.S. oil and refining industries.

Bernard Baumohl

Our imports increase as long as the economy grows. But there's certainly a concern that our exports are down despite the fact that Asian and European economies have begun to rebound. Maintaining the high deficit is dangerous because that means a huge debt, and if our creditors lose confidence in the U.S. economy and begin selling dollars, which drives down the value of the currency, that could spark a serious inflation threat. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

Our imports increase as long as the economy grows. But there's certainly a concern that our exports are down despite the fact that Asian and European economies have begun to rebound. Maintaining the high deficit is dangerous because that means a huge debt, and if our creditors lose confidence in the U.S. economy and begin selling dollars, which drives down the value of the currency, that could spark a serious inflation threat.

Bernard Baumohl

Confidence Currency Economy

This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed. This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed. This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again.

Bernard Baumohl

Economy Stocks Uncertainty

With the housing sector now cooling and interest rates rising, the home equity cash faucet (which has been feeding consumer spending) is about to dry up. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

With the housing sector now cooling and interest rates rising, the home equity cash faucet (which has been feeding consumer spending) is about to dry up.

Bernard Baumohl

Consumer Spending Interest Rates

The tech industry is creating its own shakeout, - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The tech industry is creating its own shakeout,

Bernard Baumohl

[For investors, tech stocks have always been wobbly, with their stratospheric price-to-earnings ratios and fluid business plans -- now they're starting to careen, mostly downward, with regularity, and other bets are only getting better.] The higher interest rates go, the more lucrative bonds and T-Bills are, ... When 30-year bond yields get over 7 percent, with absolutely no risk, money gets shifted out of the techs and put elsewhere. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

[For investors, tech stocks have always been wobbly, with their stratospheric price-to-earnings ratios and fluid business plans -- now they're starting to careen, mostly downward, with regularity, and other bets are only getting better.] The higher interest rates go, the more lucrative bonds and T-Bills are, ... When 30-year bond yields get over 7 percent, with absolutely no risk, money gets shifted out of the techs and put elsewhere.

Bernard Baumohl

Bonds Earnings Interest Rates Investors Stocks

Katrina has shaken the very foundations of the U.S. economic expansion when it ruined much of America's energy infrastructure, ... While a recession is unlikely, the probability of stagflation has greatly increased with inflation moving higher even as the economy slows. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

Katrina has shaken the very foundations of the U.S. economic expansion when it ruined much of America's energy infrastructure, ... While a recession is unlikely, the probability of stagflation has greatly increased with inflation moving higher even as the economy slows.

Bernard Baumohl

Economy Inflation Recession

The higher interest rates go, the more lucrative bonds and T-Bills are. When 30-year bond yields get over 7 percent, with absolutely no risk, money gets shifted out of the techs and put elsewhere. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The higher interest rates go, the more lucrative bonds and T-Bills are. When 30-year bond yields get over 7 percent, with absolutely no risk, money gets shifted out of the techs and put elsewhere.

Bernard Baumohl

Bonds Interest Rates

The sharp pullback in economic growth during the final three months of 2005 shows the law of gravity has not been repealed. When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give. This retrenchment in spending was generally foreseen, though economists weren't sure on the timing and magnitude. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The sharp pullback in economic growth during the final three months of 2005 shows the law of gravity has not been repealed. When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give. This retrenchment in spending was generally foreseen, though economists weren't sure on the timing and magnitude.

Bernard Baumohl

Consumers Economic Growth Economists Inflation Magnitude

The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, the lowest since July 2001, virtually assures that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again on March 28 to 4.75 percent and at the May 10th meeting to 5 percent. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, the lowest since July 2001, virtually assures that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again on March 28 to 4.75 percent and at the May 10th meeting to 5 percent.

Bernard Baumohl

Federal Reserve

The current account deficit is a ticking time bomb. We don't know when it s going to explode, but it cannot continue the way the White House describes. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The current account deficit is a ticking time bomb. We don't know when it s going to explode, but it cannot continue the way the White House describes.

Bernard Baumohl

With household finances already under considerable stress, one has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

With household finances already under considerable stress, one has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.

Bernard Baumohl

Consumer Spending Stress

One has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

One has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.

Bernard Baumohl

Consumer Spending

The latest batch of economic news does not paint a very encouraging picture on the sustainability of consumer spending. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

The latest batch of economic news does not paint a very encouraging picture on the sustainability of consumer spending.

Bernard Baumohl

Consumer Spending Sustainability

Housing prices in many communities will appreciate less rapidly --- and in some communities actually fall. This reduces the wealth effect from real estate assets, shrinks home equity borrowing, and increases pressure on households to replenish their savings. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

Housing prices in many communities will appreciate less rapidly --- and in some communities actually fall. This reduces the wealth effect from real estate assets, shrinks home equity borrowing, and increases pressure on households to replenish their savings.

Bernard Baumohl

Household Real Estate

With borrowing costs on the rise and the wealth effect from real estate assets diminishing, something has to give. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

With borrowing costs on the rise and the wealth effect from real estate assets diminishing, something has to give.

Bernard Baumohl

If you take a snapshot of the economy right now, you could certainly say that we're in a sweet spot. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

If you take a snapshot of the economy right now, you could certainly say that we're in a sweet spot.

Bernard Baumohl

A miscalculation in interest rate policy could damage the economy and force the Fed to reverse course later in the year by giving back one or two rate hikes. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

A miscalculation in interest rate policy could damage the economy and force the Fed to reverse course later in the year by giving back one or two rate hikes.

Bernard Baumohl

Bond traders are concerned that the economy may be growing too fast, given where we are in the business cycle. - Bernard Baumohl Quotes

Bond traders are concerned that the economy may be growing too fast, given where we are in the business cycle.

Bernard Baumohl

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